Ready to witness the upcoming hottest year? The El-Nino is here.
The El-Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is back after 3 years to make an impact across countries. With global temperatures hovering around 1.1°C above the average levels, rising temperature with scorching heat could invite dire consequences.
If that is set to happen, then climate alarm bells would ring hard.
ABOUT EL-NINO?
It is a climate pattern with unusually warm waters in the Eastern Pacific ocean. A stronger El-Nino event means extreme weather event.
The last time such a severe event occurred was in 2016. Current estimates suggest that, 2024 will be hard and is set to breach records.
This unusual change would easily get global average temperatures to 1.5°C above average levels.
The question that pokes my mind is, ‘What would be the sustainability of Paris Agreement & promise made by nations to limit the global temperatures to <1.5°C?’
WHAT EL-NINO DOES TO EARTH?
The cause of El-Nino is primarily due to the weakening of Trade winds and low upwelling at the East Pacific ocean.
Since 1953, El-Nino has occurred every 4 years. So if there isn’t any El-Nino event in 2023, it would mark a gap of 5 years. Though its onset takes time, the consequences would be dire once it establishes itself.
Extreme weather events like excessive rainfall in South America instead of cool dry conditions results in poor fishing (mode of livelihood for coastal population) along East pacific coast, thereby creating a domino effect on marine life.
In the similar fashion, Extreme droughts in Australia can set the spark for forest bushfires as the continent possess >15 million acres under grasslands. (Remembering forest bushfires of 2019-20).
Droughts in Asia and Horn of Africa can disrupt the Indian Monsoon.
This geographical phenomenon has ripple effects on other components like, Economic and Humanitarian grounds. Let me substantiate.
- A strong El-Nino in 1998 cost around $5 trillion.
- Around 23000 people lost their lives to storms and floods.
Estimates suggest that this year’s losses can amount to $3 trillion on a global scale.
EFFECTS ON INDIA?
1. Indian Monsoon would be disrupted.
2. Low rainfall means Low agricultural output, thus a surge in prices (Inflation)
3. Basic necessities like Sugar, Rice, Crude oil would be costlier which can drain Foreign Exchange reserves for India.
On 8th June, 2023. A delayed Monsoon has set its foot on southern state of Kerala, but the IMD is not much worried as India may not receive heavy rainfall this year.
Now is the time for the countries to gear up to face a huge impact. As El-Nino returns, extreme weather is not far behind!
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